基于SWOT-AHP的工业仓储用岛开发利用策略研究——以舟山群岛新区为例

本文采用SWOT分析法对舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用的优势、劣势、机遇和挑战进行定性分析,再通过AHP法进行定量分析,构建SWOT-AHP模型。通过计算舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用策略四边形,确定舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用应选择开拓型战略,即发挥自身优势、抓住外部机遇。     

Preventing motor vehicle crash injuries and deaths: science vs. folklore lessons from history

Abstract

Not long after the beginnings of motorization in the early 1900s, deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes became a problem in a number of high-income-countries (HIC)s, especially the United States. With the biggest problem the US led early efforts to address this issue, and for six decades these efforts were based on folklore (ie a body of widely held but false or unsubstantiated beliefs). They were not evaluated, but clearly were unsuccessful as crash deaths and injuries continued to rise. It was not until the 1970s that a broader range of countermeasures began to be adopted and was scientifically evaluated, and as a result, crash deaths and injuries declined. This history has important lessons today for many low-and-middle-income countries that have growing numbers of motor vehicle crash deaths and injuries, many of which are pedestrians and motorcyclists. This is because there continue to be advocates for many of the failed approaches (especially educational) that dominated the early efforts in HICs.     

中国与“一带一路”沿线中东欧国家物流绩效对比分析

“一带一路”沿线国家间物流合作对“设施联通、贸易畅通”意义重大,如何加强物流合作,需要进行科学决策。世界银行发布的物流绩效指数(LPI)已成为评价各国跨境物流绩效综合水平的工具,利用该工具进行分析研究,可以为跨区域物流合作提供决策参考。中国与“一带一路”沿线中东欧国家的合作是目前最具区域板块价值的合作机制,即“17+1合作”,需要进行系统性的合作机制研究。利用“一带一路”沿线中东欧17国的LPI,通过多维分析,可探索中国加强与中东欧国家之间的跨境物流合作新路径。在验证LPI6个子要素衡量一个国家物流绩效水平合理性的基础上,通过对中东欧17国LPI的平均值、增长率和变异系数进行分析发现,影响中东欧与中国物流绩效的重要因素依次为基础设施水平、物流质量和服务能力、货物追踪性、国际运输能力、海关效率、货物运输时效性。另外,对中东欧17国LPI的6个子要素进行聚类,并对不同群类进行针对性分析。在“一带一路”建设背景下,中国应充分发挥亚洲基础设施投资银行平台和丝绸之路基金的主导优势,提升跨境物流通道设施水平,加快建设“一带一路”自贸区,构建物流大数据信息中心,打造中东欧物流枢纽网络,促进中国与中东欧国家之间的跨境物流、供应链合作。     

我国物流业2019年发展回顾与2020年展望

2019年是中华人民共和国成立70周年,也是物流业稳中有进、变中求新的一年。面对严峻形势,我国物流业顶住下行压力,实现平稳运行,取得多方面进展。具体而言,一是社会物流需求增速持续放缓,总体运行缓中趋稳;二是物流需求结构持续优化,物流供给结构稳步升级,供需结构加速调整;三是科技应用引领数智化转型,科技赋能物流数智化、平台化;四是新兴的供应链服务企业向标准化发展迈出了重要一步,供应链创新发展进入新阶段,现代供应链成为新亮点;五是物流基础设施网络加快升级,物流枢纽网络建设进入实质推进阶段,助力枢纽经济发展;六是物流业"走出去"空间加大,国际物流打开对外开放新局面,我国对外投资合作与对外援助执行保持平稳有序健康发展;七是绿色物流配合污染防治攻坚战,绿色可持续物流取得新进展;八是物流政策落地,物流企业获得感增强,从业人员稳定性增强,物流营商环境持续改善。2020年,我国经济稳中向好的基本趋势不会改变,物流业平稳增长的总体方向不会改变,物流业主要经济指标将继续保持平稳增长,但物流业下行压力依然较大,发展不平衡、不充分矛盾依然比较突出,与人民群众日益增长的美好生活需要和现代化经济体系建设的要求相比依然存在差距,高质量发展任重道远。在新的一年里,为更好地推动我国物流业发展,一要平衡物流稳增长与高质量发展关系,决胜全面建成小康社会;二要坚持目标导向,探索新时代物流业发展的新使命新要求;三要突出新发展理念,推动传统数量型降成本向效率型降成本转变;四要深化产业联动融合,从低水平粗放式发展向精细化、高品质发展转变;五要坚持科技引领和技术驱动,激发物流业高质量发展新动能;六要推进国家物流枢纽联盟工程和全国百家骨干物流园区互联互通工程,建设物流基础设施网络;七要配合"一带一路"倡议,推动国际物流合作与交流;八要进一步处理好政府与市场、国家与地方、市场与企业的关系,营造政府、企业与协会合力推动物流业高质量发展的产业生态圈。     

State-owned banks in the market for corporate control

We study the pre-deal characteristics of state-owned banks acquiring other companies, relative to their private counterparts. We build a unique international data-set of 3682 deals in the years 2003–2013. Econometric results highlight that those state-owned banks that are acting as acquirers have an ex-ante performance similar to their private benchmarks. The results are driven by the role of development banks. This new finding points to the recent evolution of some types of contemporary state-owned financial players.     

基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。     

Forecasting corporate financial distress in the Southeast Asian countries: A market-based approach

This study is conducted to investigate the prediction of corporate financial distress based on the Merton (1974) market-based Distance to Default (DD) model over the period from 1997 to 2016 which covers a range of economic financial circumstances, including the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The study focusses on the six largest countries in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Unlike previous studies which focus mainly on bankruptcy, this paper focusses on early warning distress indicators that signal distress well before bankruptcy. This is when firms experience difficulty in servicing debt as measured by interest coverage ratio (ICR) at a firm level and non-performing loans (NPLs) at a country level. Key empirical findings from this paper indicate that the market-based distance-to-default (DD) model is generally a good early warning indicator of financial distress in the following year, particularly for ICR, but that prediction accuracy varies between individual countries in the Southeast Asian region.     

For green or not for green? The effect of cooperation goals and type on environmental performance

Although many scholars have demonstrated that companies engaged in collaborations achieve better environmental performance than other companies, existing studies have not analyzed in depth whether this effect changes considering the characteristics of cooperation. Our paper aims to explore whether collaboration with other companies always has a positive effect on environmental performance or whether it depends on cooperation goals, collaboration type, or company size. Empirical analysis based on a sample of 773 European companies demonstrated that an external source of knowledge is an important way to foster firms' environmental proactivity, especially when environmental goals are shared at the basis of collaboration. Second, we verified that companies involved in JVs with environmental goals achieve greater environmental performance than companies that use M&As to acquire external knowledge. Finally, we demonstrated that it is more important for small companies to be involved in environmental collaboration than larger ones.     

领导干部自然资源资产离任审计与企业绿色并购——来自中国重污染型上市公司的经验证据

基于2011~2017年我国A股重污染型上市公司经验数据，实证检验了领导干部自然资源资产离任审计对企业绿色并购行为的影响，研究发现：领导干部自然资源资产离任审计可显著促进辖区内企业实施绿色并购；而当地区市场竞争程度越高时，越会抑制企业在领导干部自然资源资产离任审计试点实施背景下的绿色并购扩张行为；进一步地，企业绿色并购会显著提高企业价值，且这一影响对并购后当年的企业价值影响最为显著；基于异质性分析方面，领导干部自然资源资产离任审计会约束不同产权性质企业的环境治理行为，促进其采取绿色并购，实施绿色发展；同时领导干部自然资源资产离任审计会更有利于东部地区企业实施绿色并购，而对中西部地区的企业影响不明显。     

集成动员理论下军民科技协同创新机制设计研究

军民科技协同创新能力是国家科技整体竞争力的重要组成部分。近年来，军民科技协同创新取得显著成效，但也存在诸多问题，严重阻碍了军民科技协同创新深入发展。因此，迫切需要对军民科技协同创新机制进行系统性设计。基于集成动员理论的核心思想，借鉴其组织模式和运行机制理论，针对军民科技协同创新机制不明晰等问题，对军民科技协同创新机制进行系统性设计，提出在军民科技协同创新管理机构的引导下，将军民科技协同创新的各种资源要素和功能集成于军民科技协同创新服务平台，为军民科技协同创新流程和成果转化流程两大板块提供相关服务，并构建相关运行保障机制，进而实现军民科技协同创新集成化、敏捷化、模块化、高效化管理，进一步完善军民科技协同创新管理体系。